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nonlinearity from a bubble calibration. In addition to forecasting the time of the end of a bubble, the new models can also …, forecasting their ending times and estimating fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity. The performance of the new models is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008797688
Recent literature suggests that trading by institutional investors may affect the first and second moments of returns. Elaborating on this intuition, we conjecture that arbitrageurs can propagate liquidity shocks between related markets. The paper provides evidence in this direction by studying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009554748
We use the term structure of spreads between rates on interest rate swaps indexed to LIBOR and overnight indexed swaps to infer a term structure of interbank risk. Using a dynamic term structure model, we decompose the term structure of interbank risk into default and non-default components. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009313029
The recent crisis has demonstrated the close linkages between various asset classes within a country as well as the association between assets internationally. The aim of this research is to provide for a better understanding of some of these linkages by conducting an empirical investigation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009750633
We examine the effects on a financial network of multilateral clearing via a central clearing counterparty (CCP) from an ex ante and ex post perspective. The CCP is capitalized with equity and a guarantee fund and it can charge a volume-based fee. We propose a CCP design which improves aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009751124
Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257508
We study a financial network where forced liquidations of an illiquid asset have a negative impact on its price, thus reinforcing network contagion. We give conditions for uniqueness of the clearing asset price and liability payments. Our main result holds under mild and natural assumptions on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410730
Following the 2008 financial crisis, regulation mandates the clearing of the CDS market through Central Clearing Counter-parties (CCPs). Large CCPs are now designated as 'Global Systemically Important Institutions' (GSIIs), whose unlikely-but-plausible failure threatens global financial market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419635
Recently, for standard asset classes, the first mutual clearing agreements between Central Coun- terparties (CCPs) have come into existence. There are already global concerns over the unique threats and benefits which arise from these situations, and further concern for an extension of agree-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271216
We examine the effects on a financial network of clearing all contracts though a central node (CN) thereby transforming the original network into a star-shaped one. The CN is capitalized with external equity and a guaranty fund. We introduce a structural systemic risk measure that captures the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012180475