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nonlinearity from a bubble calibration. In addition to forecasting the time of the end of a bubble, the new models can also …, forecasting their ending times and estimating fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity. The performance of the new models is …
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Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous...
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inefficiently. In this article, the authors examine chosen methods of forecasting regional government revenue. In addition to … classical forecasting models based on time series and causal models, an original structural forecasting procedure was proposed … other researchers, which indicated that less comprehensive methods of forecasting can provide reasonably accurate estimates. …
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