Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of...

We adopt a structural time series analysis to investigate the impact of parole abolition and sentence reform in Virginia on reported crime rates. The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offences committed on or after January 1, 1995. To examine the...

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A</I> (2008). Vol. 171, issue 1, pages 265-277.<P> Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments...</p></i>