Empirical/statistical analysis of effects of changes in index S&P 500 upon inflation processes in American economy in the years 1951–2009 is given. It is shown there is a statistically significant difference in CPI changes dependent on positive (negative) dynamics of index S&P 500 ones

This study is aimed at creation of the macroeconometric models of the key macro-indices of the national economics of Russia and Armenia: GDP, inflation, export and import, the average wage, etc. The choice of predictors of these models is made according to findings from theoretical models...

The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human capital and in this sense induces the growth rate...

In deciding a monetary policy stance, central bankers need to evaluate carefully the risks the current economic situation poses to price stability. We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk...

While forecasting is a common practice in academia, government and business alike, practitioners are often left wondering how to choose the sample for estimating forecasting models. When we forecast inflation in 2014, for example, should we use the last 30 years of data or the last 10 years of...

Several authors have recently interpreted the ECB's two-pillar framework as separate approaches to forecast and analyse inflation at different time horizons or frequency bands. The ECB has publicly supported this understanding of the framework. This paper presents further evidence on the...