This paper studies communication by European central bankers during the first years of the European Economic and Monetary Union. We find that comments by central bankers on interest rates, inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone have often been contradictory. However, over the years,...

We examine the usefulness of communication by the European Central Bank for predicting its policy decisions during the early years of the European Economic and Monetary Union. Using ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule, we find that statements on the main refinancing rate and future...