This paper addresses two problems faced by many forecasters in the transport sector, namely how to use a relatively small sample to forecast car ownership over a long period of time and avoid the difficulties caused by spurious or nonsense regressions. Five alternative estimation methods are...

A general to specific methodology is used to construct UK demand for outbound tourism models to twelve destinations. A tourism destination preference index is introduced to take into account social, cultural and psychological influences on tourists' decisions concerning their overseas holiday...

Previous studies indicate that the poor forecasting performance of constant parameter UK consumption expenditure models is caused by structural instability in the underlying data generating process. Typically, this instability is removed by reparameterization within the constant parameter...

This study investigates the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China. The integration and cointegration properties of the data are analysed and the models of Granger, Sims, Geweke and Hsiao are used to identify a bi-directional causal relationship between GNP and exports...

This aim of this paper is to give a contribution to the debate on whether output-inflation trade-offs are negatively influenced by the mean of inflation (as postulated by new-Keynesians) or by the variability of inflation (as postulated by neo-classical economists). To remove any concerns about...

The effect of government taxation on future consumption has been explained in three ways: the Keynesian approach, the Ricardian Equivalence proposition and the German view of Expansionary Fiscal Contraction (EFC). This paper reports empirical evidence on the validity of these explanations by...

This article contributes to the literature on the relationship between financial development and economic growth in three ways: it utilizes recently developed techniques for generalized methods of moments (GMM) one-step estimation with dynamic panel models, it focuses exclusively on a sample of...