This paper investigates, using cointegration and Granger-causality techniques, whether a stable long-run co-movement exists between world commodity prices and U.K. retail prices, and whether short-run changes in commodity prices convey information about future movements in U.K. retail prices....

This note examines interest rate linkages within the EMS. Cointegration tests suggest the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between German and other EMS interest rates. Bivariate VAR analysis finds that Granger-causality either stems from German to other European interest rates...

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of taxation on economic performance, adds marginally to the empirical literature, and draws conclusions for tax policy in OECD countries. Key issues covered are how, in open OECD economies, taxes may have affected...

The long-run money-inflation relation is re-examined in the context of De Grauwe and Polan's (2005) recent claim that the monetary aggregates are of no use for monetary analysis at low rates of inflation, and Nelson's (2002) counterclaim that in cross-country analysis money should be defined as...

This letter presents estimates of a stable long-run money demand function in Italy over the period 1861-1980. Results using the Johansen procedure of cointegration indicate a unique, long-run demand function for currency and the broad money supply. In each case, the real income and interest rate...

Southeast Asia exhibits a bias towards intra-regional trade but not one that is out of line with the size, growth rates and geographical proximity of these countries; there is more trade bias than exhibited by the EU but less than that of NAFTA and, unlike in the EU and NAFTA, southeast Asian...

Evidence is presented in favour of a Fisher effect between treasury bill interest rates and inflation in Mexico between 1978-94. The two series appear to be cointegrated and a unit proportional relationship between them would appear to exist such that treasury bills rates respond fully to...

The long-run tendency for government expenditure to grow relative to GNP, Wagner's law, is tested for six European countries using data from around the mid-19th century to 1913. With few exceptions the results suggest that: nominal and real GNP, nominal and real government expenditure, and...