The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has developed a system of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for its member countries. On the other hand, the Japanese government has released another CLI for detecting the Japanese business cycle turning points. Both CLIs are...

The paper examines whether M2 demand in Japan does not form a cointegrated system unless the effective exchange rate is included. We focus on testing statistical significance of the coefficient for the effective exchange rate in the long-run equilibrium M2 demand relation. Empirical results...

This article presents a new method for estimating the unobservable nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). We improve upon the method employed in Ball and Mankiw (2002) so that (i) the new method can estimate simultaneously both the time-varying NAIRU and the Phillips curve slope...

The paper examines the validity of export promotion strategies using a structural vector autoregressive model. Empirical results based on Korean monthly data indicate that: (i) export specific shocks have permanent effects on output; and (ii) the effects are not small. These results provide some...

This paper applies the multi-scale beta estimation approach based on wavelet analysis proposed in Gencay et al. (2002) to Japanese industrial stock prices. Betas are calculated based on the wavelet rough and smooth from the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and it is argued that the conventional...