This article suggests a novel approach to pre-selection of the component series of the diffusion index based on their individual forecasting performance. It is shown that this targeted selection allows substantially improving the forecasting ability compared to the diffusion index models that...

In a pioneering attempt, we present the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. We evaluate its predictive ability of GDP growth using real-time vintages of GDP data, closely simulating flow of information in the past. We find that inclusion of the R-word index led to a statistically significant...

This study compares two alternative approaches-the traditional ordinary least square (OLS) and the Poisson Quasi Maximum Likelihood (PQML) procedures-to estimation of the home market effects for the heterogeneous, the reference priced and the homogeneous goods in the gravity model derived in...

This letter provides a textbook example of an econometric analysis of the integration between two commodity markets and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. Price relations between spot markets are analysed for natural gas in Europe. The European market for natural gas is...

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from Chile. It addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on the economic growth. In order to investigate...