Our study tries to quantify the predictability of economic growth and links it to the capability of regimes to fight against inflation. A regime with a high persistence of inflation and, hence, low credibility exhibits a high level of predictability of economic growth using the yield curve as...

We analyse a large sample of second-hand information published in the Tendenzen & Tips column of the prominent German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), which is free of any contamination from first-hand information. We find strong evidence for the price-pressure hypothesis because...