This note investigates how the explanatory power of the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve evolves over time. We exploit the present-value implications of the model and use VAR forecasts to assess whether the model matches the behaviour of actual inflation in the Euro area. A set of...

We use the MPC voting records to predict changes in the volume of asset purchases. We find, first, that minority voting favouring an increase in the volume of asset purchases raises the probability of an actual increase at the next meeting. Second, minority voting supporting a higher Bank Rate...

In this article, we explore the interest rate setting behaviour of newly appointed central bank governors. We estimate an augmented Taylor (1993) rule for 15 OECD countries and the period 1974 to 2008. We find that newly appointed governors fight inflation more aggressively during the first four...