This article assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using outside sample forecast errors,...

The short run and long run influences of the main determinants of the German long-term interest rate are estimated using quarterly data for the period 1982-2001. A major reason for the focus on the German interest rate is that this rate, and hence its determinants, will be dominant in explaining...