The paper considers the modelling, description and forecasting of four daily exchange rate returns relative to the Dutch guilder using artificial neural network models (ANNs). Based on simulations it is argued (i) that neglected GARCH does not lead to spuriously successful ANNs and (ii) that if...

A time series model is proposed that describes the day-of-the-week seasonality in returns as well as in volatility of the daily S&P 500 index. The model is a periodic autoregression with periodically integrated GARCH [PAR-PIGARCH]. With this statistically adequate model, positive (negative)...

This paper gives an unbiased estimator of the variance of overlapping returns. The estimator improves upon that proposed in Lo and MacKinlay (1988) [LM] (which is widely used in practice), as the LM estimator is consistent but not unbiased in small samples. The relevance of unbiasedness for...

This article studies the link between stock returns and size and book-to-market equity effects for 10 companies listed at the Suriname Stock Exchange (SSE). We analyse the cross-sectional variation in average returns and we find that there is apparently no size effect, but there is a value...

There are no empirical studies on how individuals actually pay with cash in case some notes or coins are missing. This lack of research is most likely due to the difficulties in collecting actual data. In this article, we therefore analyse euro transactions collected in an experimental setting,...

The (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity [(G)ARCH] model is tested for daily data on 22 exchange rates and 13 stock market indices using the standard Lagrange Multiplier [LM] test for GARCH and a LM test that is resistant to patches of additive outliers. The data span two...

The so-called Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson model implies that relative prices of non-traded goods may be nonstationary and, hence, that PPP should preferably be tested on real exchange rates based on prices of traded goods only. A simple test for PPP among traded goods is proposed that can be...

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in China follows a random walk. Also, it has often been suggested that China 'cooks its books', that is to say that governmental officials in China manipulate economic statistics, such as GDP growth rate to present the outside world a rosy picture...