Using wavelet analysis, this paper shows empirically that Japanese stock prices contain predictive information on business turning points since the middle of the 1980s. The average leading period is about 13 months.

This note empirically reexamines the Fisher relation with Japanese monthly data for the last three decades. Following Bierens (2000) it is examined by assuming that the nominal interest rate and inflation contain a nonlinear deterministic trend rather than a stochastic trend.