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Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models
Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
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Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components
Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014
short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data
Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
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A Bayesian approach to excess volatility, short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises
Guo, Xu; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing Keung; Zhu, Lixing - 2016
In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441491
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Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015
Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571
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The effects of systemic banking crises in the inter-war period
Rocha, Bruno T. da; Solomou, Solomos - 2015
This paper examines the time-profile of the impact of systemic banking crises on GDP and industrial production using a panel of 24 countries over the inter-war period and compares this to the post-war experience of these countries. We show that banking crises have effects that induce medium-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496916
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Financial policymaking after crises : public vs. private interests
Saka, Orkun; Ji, Yuemei; De Grauwe, Paul - 2021
We first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by both public and private interests. Using a novel dataset covering 94 countries between 1973 and 2015, we then establish that financial crises can lead to government interventions in financial markets. Consistent with a public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012542146
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The International Monetary Fund : 70 years of reinvention
Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2015 - This draft: December 10, 2015
A sketch of the International Monetary Fund's 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. This history is primarily consistent with a "demand driven" theory of institutional change, as the needs of its clients and the type of crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011406766
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Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902
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Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter - 2016
We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544319