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Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation : Some Theory and Empirics

Brock, William A. - 2004

This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467771

Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations

Durlauf, Steven N. - 1989

ranked according to the information restrictions employed in constructing noise estimates. Our results show that … information sets that exclude those variables …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476117

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations

Coibion, Olivier - 2020

then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current and/or future inflation and interest rates …. Information treatments about current and next year's interest rates have a strong effect on household expectations but treatments … constrained capacity to collect and process information …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479302

Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?

Coibion, Olivier - 2020

Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the Covid-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal … the Nielsen Homescan panel with different combinations of information about the severity of the pandemic, recent actions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481579