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German economy currently scarcely making headway

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 36/37, pp. 245-253

Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362798

New DIW Berlin model can nowcast the current income distribution : inequality likely to slightly increase in 2023

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Pagenhardt, Laura - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 43/44, pp. 283-289

The unequal distribution of labor income in Germany is a hotly debated topic among policymakers and the general public alike. However, the relevant data for calculating the distribution is usually available with a delay of sometimes over two years. Accordingly, previous studies have only been...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431177

DIW Berlin economic forecast : forecast ranges from cloudy to bright

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 50/52, pp. 305-313

The recovery of the German economy is becoming an exercise in patience. In the third quarter of 2023 the economy fared worse than expected, in particular because private households continued to spend their money conservatively despite climbing wages and falling inflation. Both private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014466268

Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

IW Berlin economic outlook : summer upswing to follow winter slump

Baldi, Guido; Berenberg-Gossler, Paul; Engerer, Hella; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 12 (2022) 7/8, pp. 53-64

The Omicron wave of the coronavirus has impacted economies worldwide, resulting in a bleak winter. Although restrictions on economic and public life have been less severe than at the beginning of 2021 in many places-mainly due to the progress of vaccination campaigns-and there are prospects of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013161604

Global economy : advanced economies facing a strong upturn

Michelsen, Claus; Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 23/24, pp. 162-166

Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586104

German economy : uncertainty remains despite rebound

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 23/24, pp. 168-174

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586106

Global economy returning to its recovery course after summer setbacks

Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Engerer, Hella; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 37, pp. 270-274

Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has caused economic developments in major economies to drift apart: While infection rates were declining and production was experiencing strong growth in places such as Europe and the United States in the second quarter of 2021, emerging economies were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012631744

German economy only slowly emerging from the pandemic

Clemens, Marius; Junker, Simon; Pagenhardt, Laura - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 37, pp. 276-280

The German economy is taking longer than expected to overcome the pandemic: It is likely to increase by only 2.1 percent in 2021 and capacities remain markedly underutilized. In addition, global supply bottlenecks are affecting German industry, resulting in stalled domestic production despite...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012631749

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