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New DIW Berlin model can nowcast the current income distribution : inequality likely to slightly increase in 2023

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Pagenhardt, Laura - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 43/44, pp. 283-289

The unequal distribution of labor income in Germany is a hotly debated topic among policymakers and the general public alike. However, the relevant data for calculating the distribution is usually available with a delay of sometimes over two years. Accordingly, previous studies have only been...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431177

German economy currently scarcely making headway

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 36/37, pp. 245-253

Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362798

DIW Berlin economic forecast : forecast ranges from cloudy to bright

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 50/52, pp. 305-313

The recovery of the German economy is becoming an exercise in patience. In the third quarter of 2023 the economy fared worse than expected, in particular because private households continued to spend their money conservatively despite climbing wages and falling inflation. Both private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014466268

Predicting Fiscal Crises

Cerovic, Svetlana - 2018

-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912485

Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability

Deghi, Andrea - 2020

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831613

Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt : A Global Perspective

Alter, Adrian - 2018

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950-2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918565

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543

Global economy : advanced economies facing a strong upturn

Michelsen, Claus; Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 23/24, pp. 162-166

Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586104

German economy : uncertainty remains despite rebound

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 23/24, pp. 168-174

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586106

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