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German economy currently scarcely making headway

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 36/37, pp. 245-253

Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362798

New DIW Berlin model can nowcast the current income distribution : inequality likely to slightly increase in 2023

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Pagenhardt, Laura - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 43/44, pp. 283-289

The unequal distribution of labor income in Germany is a hotly debated topic among policymakers and the general public alike. However, the relevant data for calculating the distribution is usually available with a delay of sometimes over two years. Accordingly, previous studies have only been...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431177

DIW Berlin economic forecast : forecast ranges from cloudy to bright

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 50/52, pp. 305-313

The recovery of the German economy is becoming an exercise in patience. In the third quarter of 2023 the economy fared worse than expected, in particular because private households continued to spend their money conservatively despite climbing wages and falling inflation. Both private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014466268

High frequency data and a weekly economic index during the pandemic

Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel; Stock, James H.; … - 2020

This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI, with its ten component series, tracks the overall economy. Comparing the contributions of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391505

Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index

Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel; Stock, James H.; … - 2020 - Revised September 2020

This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of ten series available...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012200037

Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

Who can tell which banks will fail?

Blickle, Kristian; Brunnermeier, Markus Konrad; Luck, … - 2022

We use the German Crisis of 1931, a key event of the Great Depression, to study how depositors behave during a bank run in the absence of deposit insurance. We find that deposits decline by around 20 percent during the run and that there is an equal outflow of retail and nonfinancial wholesale...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013161892

Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: an endogenous regime-switching approach

Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2020

We estimate a workhorse dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint. First, we propose a new speciﬁcation of the occasionally binding constraint, where the transition between the unconstrained and constrained states is a stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309200

Uncertain booms and fragility

2018

I develop a framework of the buildup and outbreak of financial crises in an asymmetric information setting. In equilibrium, two distinct economic states arise endogenously: "normal times", periods of modest investment, and "booms", periods of expansionary investment. Normal times occur when the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011880642

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