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Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

German economy : uncertainty remains despite rebound

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 23/24, pp. 168-174

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586106

German economy between lockdowns and normality

Michelsen, Claus; Berenberg-Gossler, Paul; Clemens, Marius - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 11, pp. 94-97

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012500666

German economy : on the long, slow road to normality

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 37, pp. 394-400

The German economy has bottomed out, but its recovery is going to be long and arduous. Nevertheless, following the almost two-digit slump in economic output in the second quarter of 2020, recovery is likely to be accompanied by above-average rates. However, it is assumed that a second wave will...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291933

German economy slowly recovering following a deep slump

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 24/25, pp. 284-290

The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The partial easing of the lockdown and a gradual revival of global value chains are generating positive stimuli, but massive income losses will curb demand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251300

Growth rate of German economy normalizing after prolonged economic boom

Michelsen, Claus; Breuer, Christian; Bruns, Martin; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 8 (2018) 50/52, pp. 510-513

The German economy continues to perform well although the boom has ended. However, at 1.5 percent, German GDP will increase this year at a lower rate than expected at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, concerns about an imminent recession should give way to the assessment that the pace of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946925

German economy : a recession is not automatically a crisis

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 37, pp. 330-333

The slowdown in the global economy and the uncertainties caused by Brexit have affected the export-oriented German economy, which is expected to grow by only 0.5 percent this year. However, the German economy has not slid into a crisis due to marked fiscal policy stimuli and favorable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110811

German economy defying a turbulent and uncertain environment

Michelsen, Claus; Bruns, Martin; Clemens, Marius; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 22/24, pp. 196-199

After a turbulent summer, marked by a weak second and a likely stronger third quarter, the German economy should return to an average pace of growth and end up with a growth rate of 0.9 percent in 2019. Despite the more subdued pace, capacity utilization remains high; employment growth is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016596

German economy : industry struggles to shake of the crisis : DIW economic outlook

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 49/50, pp. 424-430

The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012151733