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Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

Global economy returning to its recovery course after summer setbacks

Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Engerer, Hella; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 11 (2021) 37, pp. 270-274

Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has caused economic developments in major economies to drift apart: While infection rates were declining and production was experiencing strong growth in places such as Europe and the United States in the second quarter of 2021, emerging economies were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012631744

Global economy : slow recovery following deep recession

Michelsen, Claus; Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 37, pp. 390-392

The coronavirus pandemic caused a global market crash in the first half of 2020. Following a massive slump of around four percent in the first quarter, global GDP decreased in the second by five percent. Lower rates of new infections, together with far-reaching monetary and fiscal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291931

Coronavirus pandemic plunging global economy into a serious recession

Michelsen, Claus; Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 24/25, pp. 280-282

The consequences of the ongoing 2020 coronavirus pandemic are leaving deep marks on the global economy. In the first quarter of 2020, global production sank by 15.5 percent over the course of the worldwide lockdown. Since containment measures in many countries were mainly implemented during the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251296

German economy slowly recovering following a deep slump

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 24/25, pp. 284-290

The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The partial easing of the lockdown and a gradual revival of global value chains are generating positive stimuli, but massive income losses will curb demand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251300

Growth rate of German economy normalizing after prolonged economic boom

Michelsen, Claus; Breuer, Christian; Bruns, Martin; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 8 (2018) 50/52, pp. 510-513

The German economy continues to perform well although the boom has ended. However, at 1.5 percent, German GDP will increase this year at a lower rate than expected at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, concerns about an imminent recession should give way to the assessment that the pace of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946925

The global economy and the euro area : uncertainty weighing on world trade and industry

Michelsen, Claus; Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 37, pp. 328-329

The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110800

German economy defying a turbulent and uncertain environment

Michelsen, Claus; Bruns, Martin; Clemens, Marius; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 22/24, pp. 196-199

After a turbulent summer, marked by a weak second and a likely stronger third quarter, the German economy should return to an average pace of growth and end up with a growth rate of 0.9 percent in 2019. Despite the more subdued pace, capacity utilization remains high; employment growth is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016596

German economy : industry struggles to shake of the crisis : DIW economic outlook

Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 49/50, pp. 424-430

The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012151733

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