short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …

predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting … aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting. …