short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting … aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting. …

forecasting performance of the various model specifications. The extension of a basic growth model with a constant mean to models … expectations is important for forecasting growth in specific periods, such as the the recession periods around 2000s and around …

the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier …

VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding …