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Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

A Bayesian approach to excess volatility, short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises

Guo, Xu; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing Keung; Zhu, Lixing - 2016

In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441491

Best friend or worst enemy? : dynamics and multiple equilibria with financial arbitrage, production and collateral constraints

Zhang, Quan - 2017 - Last update: March 23, 2017

We develop a tractable model to study the macroeconomic impacts of limited arbitrage by linking arbitrage activities with the macroeconomy through collateralization. We show that the interactions between speculative trading and the business cycle can work as a powerful transmission mechanism,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011626467

Arbitrage crashes, financial accelerator, and sudden market freezes

Zhang, Ally Quan - 2017 - Last update: November 18, 2017, preliminary draft

We investigate the channel through which fluctuations in the market liquidity of real-sector repo collateral cause arbitrage crashes and failure of systemically important intermediaries during the global financial crisis. Intermediaries pledge productive capital as repo collateral to fund the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011875637

Toward a unified framework of credit creation

Becke, Susanne von der; Sornette, Didier - 2014

We identify the origin of the contradicting perspectives on credit creation offered by Austrian, Mainstream and Post Keynesian economists as the neglect of the primacy of such assets as goods, properties and securities, which always pre-exist any transaction and loan. We develop a unified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337985

Efficiency gains of a European banking union

Schoenmaker, Dirk; Siegmann, Adriaan Hendrik - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191428

Anticipating critical transitions of Chinese housing markets

Zhang, Qunzi; Sornette, Didier; Zhang, Hao - 2017

We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761282

Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA and Switzerland

Ardila, Diego; Sanadgol, Dorsa; Cauwels, Peter; … - 2014

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two …, 35, and 90 national-level macroeconomic time series and a dynamic forecasting methodology. Empirical results suggests …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411858

Forecasting financial crashes : a dynamic risk management approach

Gerlach, Jan-Christian; Zhao, Dongshuai; Sornette, Didier - 2020

Since 2009, stock markets have resided in a long bull market regime. Passive investment strategies have succeeded during this low-volatility growth period. From 2018 on, however, there was a transition into a more volatile market environment interspersed by corrections increasing in amplitude...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419688

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