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Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

Measuring financial cycles in a model-based analysis : empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area

Galati, Gabriele; Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; … - 2016

We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456728

Moments, shocks and spillovers in Markov switching VAR models

Dijk, Dick van; Kole, Erik - 2021

To investigate how economies, financial markets or institutions can deal with stress, we nowadays often analyze the effects of shocks conditional on a recession or a bear market. MSVAR models are ideally suited for such analyses because they combine gradual movement with sudden switches. In this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621564

Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices : utilizing hourly prices

Raviv, Eran; Bouwman, Kees E.; Dijk, Dick van - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765836

Forecasting interest rates with shifting

Dijk, Dick van; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der; … - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723022

Yield curve and recession forecasting in a Machine Learning framework

Gkonkas, Periklēs; Papadimitriou, Theophilos; … - In: Computational economics 45 (2015) 4, pp. 635-645

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011440977

An alternative Bayesian approach to structural breaks in time series models

Hauwe, Sjoerd van den; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2011

We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383033

Gold against the machine

Plakandaras, Vasilios; Gkonkas, Periklēs; … - In: Computational economics 57 (2021) 1, pp. 5-28

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486908

Forecasting bank failures and stress testing : a machine learning approach

Gkonkas, Periklēs; Papadimitriou, Theophilos; … - In: International journal of forecasting 34 (2018) 3, pp. 440-455

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012031002

Periodic unobserved cycles in seasonal time series with an application to US unemployment

Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Hindrayanto, Irma - 2006

This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic … formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood estimation, component estimation and forecasting. Identification issues …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350384