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Warrant economics, call-put policy options and the fallacies of economic theory
Hatgioannides, John; Karanassou, Marika - 2011
In this paper we aim to trace the roots of the ongoing economic mayhem and to unmask the chorus of the tragedy which plays on the world stage. The main thesis of our work is that, despite the triumphant rhetoric praising the merits of perfect competition, the global fields of the dysfunctional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009488633
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Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models
Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
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Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components
Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014
short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
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Estimating time-varying DSGE models using minimum distance methods
Giraitis, Liudas; Kapetanios, George; Theodoridis, … - 2015
Following Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2014b), this paper uses kernel methods to estimate a seven variable time-varying (TV) vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data set constructed by Smets and Wouters (2007). We apply an indirect inference method to map from this TV VAR to time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405253
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Monetary policy communication : evidence from survey data
Popovska-Kamnar, Neda - 2017
This paper summarizes the results of a Survey on Monetary policy Communication conducted among central banks in Central Eastern and South-Eastern Europe and the euro area. The main objective of this Survey was to draw evidence on the level of transparency and communication strategies of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011717595
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Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models
Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; … - 2014
We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391531
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Bayesian forecasting of US growth using basic time varying parameter models and expectations data
Basturk, Nalan; Ceyhan, Pinar; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2014
forecasting performance of the various model specifications. The extension of a basic growth model with a constant mean to models … expectations is important for forecasting growth in specific periods, such as the the recession periods around 2000s and around …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399680
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Think again : higher elasticity of substitution increases economic resilience
Dumas, Patrice; Hallegatte, S. - 2009
This paper shows that, counter-intuitively, a higher elasticity of substitution in model production function can lead to reduced economic resilience and larger vulnerability to shocks in production factor prices. This result is due to the fact that assuming a higher elasticity of substitution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008821866
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Non-tariff trade policy analysis : an ex-post assessment of the EU-Korea agreement
Gruebler, Julia; Reiter, Oliver - 2020
Many different approaches have developed for the evaluation of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). Moving on from models using simple dummy variables, today a range of databases can capture different aspects of NTMs and FTAs. Some assess the depth of FTAs by extracting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012262387
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MAKMODEL : a macro-econometric model for the Republic of Macedonia
Haan, Leo de; Naumovska, Aneta; Peeters, Marga - 2001
the econometric model. The last sections present some simulation and forecasting examples. The ultimate aim of MAKMODEL is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671798