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variancefunctions. In a genuine out-of-sample forecasting experiment theperformance of the best fitted asMA-asQGARCH model is compared … topure asMA and no-change forecasts. This is done both in terms ofconditional mean forecasting as well as in terms of risk … forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303314
returns and intradaily squared returns for forecasting horizons rangingfrom 1 to 10 days. For the daily squared returns we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011304384
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literature. Finally, we show that factors extracted from our data set are useful for forecasting a range of macroeconomic series …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012216764
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115020
We develop a new dynamic multivariate model for the analysis and the forecasting of football match results in national … model specification yield the best forecasting results. In an extensive forecasting study, we consider match results from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688523
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surface types. We finally show that our proposed model can also be effective in forecasting. We provide evidence that our … model significantly outperforms existing models in the forecasting of tennis match results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794344
We develop distress prediction models for non-financial small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using a dataset from eight European countries over the period 2000-2009. We examine idiosyncratic and systematic covariates and find that macro conditions and bankruptcy codes add predictive power...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862221