Showing 1 - 8 of 8
We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391531
We propose to pool alternative systemic risk rankings for financial institutions using the method of principal components. The resulting overall ranking is less affected by estimation uncertainty and model risk. We apply our methodology to disentangle the common signal and the idiosyncratic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532581
We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531096
We investigate the information content of stock correlation based network measures for systemic risk rankings, such as SIFIRank (based on Google's PageRank). Using European banking data, we first show that SIFIRank is empirically equivalent to a ranking based on average pairwise stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531142
In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011483824
The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the … forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477100
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012497080
For forecasting volatility of futures returns, the paper proposes an indirect method based on the relationship between … futures and the underlying asset for the returns and time-varying volatility. For volatility forecasting, the paper considers … that the new method based on stochastic volatility models with the asymmetry and long memory outperforms the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590424