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short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543
We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391531
We propose to pool alternative systemic risk rankings for financial institutions using the method of principal components. The resulting overall ranking is less affected by estimation uncertainty and model risk. We apply our methodology to disentangle the common signal and the idiosyncratic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532581
We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456728
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012272048
in its ability to accurately capture clusters and preserve or enhance forecasting accuracy. For a high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315409
surface types. We finally show that our proposed model can also be effective in forecasting. We provide evidence that our … model significantly outperforms existing models in the forecasting of tennis match results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794344
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134380
We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979983