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Walther, Ansgar - 2020

This paper studies optimal financial policy in a world where the financial sector can become excessively optimistic. I decompose the welfare effects of bank capital regulation to demonstrate the effects of exuberance and its interaction with incentive problems in banking. The optimal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178343

Targeting financial stability : macroprudential or monetary policy?

Aikman, David; Giese, Julia; Kapadia, Sujit; McLeay, Michael - 2019

This paper explores monetary-macroprudential policy interactions in a simple, calibrated New Keynesian model incorporating the possibility of a credit boom precipitating a financial crisis and a loss function reflecting financial stability considerations. Deploying the countercyclical capital...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009108

Cross-country linkages and spill-overs in early warning models for financial crises

Lang, Jan Hannes - 2018

This paper uses data on bilateral foreign exposures of domestic banking systems in order to construct early warning models for financial crises that take into account cross-country spill-overs of vulnerabilities. The empirical results show that incorporating cross-country financial linkages can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864175

Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction : evidence from a machine learning approach

Bluwstein, Kristina; Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas; … - 2021

-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705396

Latent fragility : conditioning banks' joint probability of default on the financial cycle

Bochmann, Paul; Hiebert, Paul; Schüler, Yves; … - 2022

We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332831

Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China

Lodge, David; Soudan, Michel - 2019

This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975616

Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Manganelli, Simone - 2019

We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122051

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963819

Using the global dimension to identify shocks with sign restrictions

Chudik, Alexander; Fidora, Michael - 2011

Identification of structural VARs using sign restrictions has become increasingly popular in the academic literature. This paper (i) argues that identification of shocks can benefit from introducing a global dimension, and (ii) shows that summarising information by the median of the available...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935827

Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model

Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa - 2010

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657123

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