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Dissecting Long-Term Bund Yields in the Run-Up to the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme
Lemke, Wolfgang - 2017
Starting in summer 2014, markets began to build up expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would embark on large-scale sovereign bond purchases. The ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) was eventually announced on 22 January 2015 and purchases started in March. Both during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012944299
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Predicting Recession Probabilities with Financial Variables Over Multiple Horizons
Fornari, Fabio; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2021
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316154