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propose an extended time-varying VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time …
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A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a...
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Time-varying volatility is common in macroeconomic data and has been incorporated into macroeconomic models in recent work. Dynamic panel data models have become increasingly popular in macroeconomics to study common relationships across countries or regions. This paper estimates dynamic panel...
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forecasting the daily S&P 500 index return quantile (Value-at-Risk or VaR is simply the negative of it), using high …
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