Showing 1 - 10 of 48
We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two …, 35, and 90 national-level macroeconomic time series and a dynamic forecasting methodology. Empirical results suggests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411858
We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments. The conditional expected returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970340
We investigate whether bank performance during the recent credit crisis is related to chief executive officer (CEO) incentives before the crisis. We find some evidence that banks with CEOs whose incentives were better aligned with the interests of shareholders performed worse and no evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970468
This article examines the recent regulatory developments with regard to short selling. Short selling regulation is an important factor in firm governance because it affects the way in which firms are subject to market discipline. We begin with a comprehensive compilation of emergency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970469
nonlinearity from a bubble calibration. In addition to forecasting the time of the end of a bubble, the new models can also …, forecasting their ending times and estimating fundamental value and the crash nonlinearity. The performance of the new models is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008797688
Regulators charged with monitoring systemic risk need to focus on sentiment as well as narrowly defined measures of systemic risk. This chapter describes techniques for jointly monitoring the co-evolution of sentiment and systemic risk. To measure systemic risk, we use Marginal Expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009375111
In this paper, we examine the relationship between banks lobbying activities, their size, financial strength, and sources of income. First, we find that banks are more likely to lobby when they are larger, have more vulnerable balance sheets, are less creditworthy, and have more diversified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009554551
Recent literature suggests that trading by institutional investors may affect the first and second moments of returns. Elaborating on this intuition, we conjecture that arbitrageurs can propagate liquidity shocks between related markets. The paper provides evidence in this direction by studying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009554748
The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009558452
We investigate whether a bank’s performance during the 1998 crisis, which was viewed at the time as the most dramatic crisis since the Great Depression, predicts its performance during the recent financial crisis. One hypothesis is that a bank that has an especially poor experience in a crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009240510