We find that inflation, output and the stance of monetary policy do not typically display unusual behavior ahead of asset price busts. By contrast, credit, shares of investment in GDP, current account deficits, and asset prices typically rise, providing useful, if not perfect, leading indicators...

We argue that a stronger emphasis on macrofinancial risk could provide stabilization benefits. Simulations results suggest that strong monetary reactions to accelerator mechanisms that push up credit growth and asset prices could help macroeconomic stability. In addition, using a macroprudential...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS -- III. POSSIBLE PITFALLS IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS -- IV. EXPLAINING THE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS -- V. TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE IN AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL --...