Peak oil demand has become the hot new topic for oil market analysts but as always, runs the risk of being subject to superficial analysis, just as peak oil supply was. The primary arguments come from climate change activists who believe fossil fuel consumption must drop sharply and from...

With the global economy heading towards a severe oil crunch probably by 2015 or thereabouts, an analysis of Saudi oil fundamentals is causing the world disquiet and worry bordering on panic. Oil-importing nations have long treated Saudi Arabia as an infinitely deep well of crude oil supplies....

This paper uses a new empirical strategy to identify oil supply news shocks within a Non-Causal VAR model of standard global oil market variables. These shocks explain most of the movements in oil production over a long but finite time horizon. Our findings highlight the prominent role of...

The potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in convenience yields can lead to abnormally fat tails, which has implications for investment in storage capacity, leasing and drilling for crude oil. In this paper we evaluate the potential for these features in convenience yields. To...

This paper evaluates the impacts of oil market shocks on the economy using a structural vector error correction model of the United States (US) economy. The model is estimated with quarterly data for ten endogenous oil market and macroeconomic variables. Supply and demand driven oil market...