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German economy currently scarcely making headway

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 36/37, pp. 245-253

Following the winter recession and stagnation in the second quarter of 2023, the economic upswing is proceeding at a sluggish pace, contrary to expectations over the summer. Weak foreign demand and ongoing inflation have proven to be slowing economic growth. For the time being, private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362798

New DIW Berlin model can nowcast the current income distribution : inequality likely to slightly increase in 2023

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Pagenhardt, Laura - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 43/44, pp. 283-289

The unequal distribution of labor income in Germany is a hotly debated topic among policymakers and the general public alike. However, the relevant data for calculating the distribution is usually available with a delay of sometimes over two years. Accordingly, previous studies have only been...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431177

DIW Berlin economic forecast : forecast ranges from cloudy to bright

Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 13 (2023) 50/52, pp. 305-313

The recovery of the German economy is becoming an exercise in patience. In the third quarter of 2023 the economy fared worse than expected, in particular because private households continued to spend their money conservatively despite climbing wages and falling inflation. Both private...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014466268

Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction : evidence from a machine learning approach

Bluwstein, Kristina; Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas; … - 2021

-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705396

Targeting financial stability : macroprudential or monetary policy?

Aikman, David; Giese, Julia; Kapadia, Sujit; McLeay, Michael - 2019

This paper explores monetary-macroprudential policy interactions in a simple, calibrated New Keynesian model incorporating the possibility of a credit boom precipitating a financial crisis and a loss function reflecting financial stability considerations. Deploying the countercyclical capital...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009108

Cross-country linkages and spill-overs in early warning models for financial crises

Lang, Jan Hannes - 2018

This paper uses data on bilateral foreign exposures of domestic banking systems in order to construct early warning models for financial crises that take into account cross-country spill-overs of vulnerabilities. The empirical results show that incorporating cross-country financial linkages can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864175

Financial policy in an exuberant world

Walther, Ansgar - 2020

This paper studies optimal financial policy in a world where the financial sector can become excessively optimistic. I decompose the welfare effects of bank capital regulation to demonstrate the effects of exuberance and its interaction with incentive problems in banking. The optimal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178343

Latent fragility : conditioning banks' joint probability of default on the financial cycle

Bochmann, Paul; Hiebert, Paul; Schüler, Yves; … - 2022

We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332831

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