We examine the usefulness of communication by the European Central Bank for predicting its interest rate decisions. We use ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule which we estimate using statements by ECB officials as well as macroeconomic variables. Statements by ECB officials on the...

Current developments in Greece make clear that the rules of the European Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) were neither strict enough nor enforced strictly enough. To deal with the ongoing exit from the fiscal crisis and its related phenomena, we propose a new framework for fiscal policy...

That the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community is in need of reform is by now commonly accepted. But all moves for a reform on the political level have been postponed until after the French elections in the spring, a fact which highlights the political problems. Is there a real...

The recent announcement of the French Government's decision to support the French agriculture this spring by direct income transfers to the tune of ffr 4.6 bn brings home the fact that some national governments need national autonomy in agricultural policy. Regrettably it seems to foreshadow an...

Much criticism notwithstanding, the essentials of the common agricultural policy have up to now scarcely been changed. What kind of basic changes would have to be introduced for a new agricultural policy to become also politically acceptable? The following article suggests alternatives to the...

Joint decisions each year on agricultural prices by the Council of Ministers of Agriculture are a requisite of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy. It is however more and more difficult to reach joint decisions on these prices. Divergencies of national aims and economic starting...

This paper reports the results of a survey among private sector economists about credibility and transparency of central banks. In line with the survey of Alan Blinder among central bankers, we asked participants in Ifo's World Economic Survey to answer questions on the importance and...

This paper examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivariate model for the period 1999-2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that the Stability and Growth Pact has not restricted fiscal policy makers in the euro...

We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy...