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Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

Andersen, Torben G. - 2002

This paper provides a general framework for integration of high-frequency intraday data into the measurement forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting financial asset return volatilities, correlations, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458

Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration : Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange

Diebold, Francis X.; Hahn, Jinyong; Tay, Anthony S. - 2021

We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239958

The Spatial Mismatch between Innovation and Joblessness

Glaeser, Edward L. - 2019

's most persistent pockets of joblessness. Could a more even spatial distribution of innovation reduce American joblessness …? Could Federal policies disperse innovation without significant costs? If research funding is already maximizing knowledge … production, then spatial reallocation of that funding will reduce America's overall innovation unless that reallocation comes …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869066

Improving GDP Measurement : a Forecast Combination Perspective

Aruoba, S. Borağan - 2011

Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120293

Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness

Demirer, Mert - 2017

the world's top 150 banks, 2003-2014. We characterize static network connectedness using full-sample estimation and … dynamic network connectedness using rolling-window estimation. Statically, we find that global bank equity connectedness has a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963187

Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

Andersen, Torben G. - 2005

What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012784980

Measuring Gentrification : Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

Glaeser, Edward L. - 2018

We demonstrate that data from digital platforms such as Yelp have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification, both by providing data in close to real time (i.e. nowcasting and forecasting) and by providing additional context about how the local economy is changing. Combining...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911707

Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions : Half a Century of Direct Evidence

Campbell, Sean D.; Diebold, Francis X. - 2021

We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218119

Corruption in America

Glaeser, Edward L.; Saks, Raven E. - 2021

We use a data set of federal corruption convictions in the U.S. to investigate the causes and consequences of corruption. More educated states, and to a less degree richer states, have less corruption. This relationship holds even when we use historical factors like education in 1928 or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218129

Cities, Regions and the Decline of Transport Costs

Glaeser, Edward L.; Kohlhase, Janet E. - 2021

The theoretical framework of urban and regional economics is built on transportation costs for manufactured goods. But over the twentieth century, the costs of moving these goods have declined by over 90% in real terms, and there is little reason to doubt that this decline will continue....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013220511