This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brazil’s growth has decelerated in recent years. The boost from decade-old reforms, expanding labor income, and favorable external conditions, which enabled consumption and credit-led growth and underpinned sustained poverty reduction, has lost...

KEY ISSUES Context. Brazil is recovering gradually from the growth slowdown that started in mid- 2011, but the recovery remains uneven and inflation elevated. Output is estimated at potential with supply-side constraints, linked to tight labor market conditions and protracted weak investment...

"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...