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Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity : the role of corporate securities issuance
Dieckelmann, Daniel - 2021
Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market sentiment approximated by several measures of corporate securities issuance are highly predictive of banking crises and recessions. Deviations in equity issuance from historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431742
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Buried in the vaults of central banks : monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression
Karau, Sören - 2020 - This draft: October 2020
I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405992
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The effects of US monetary policy shocks : applying external instrument identification to a dynamic factor model
Kerssenfischer, Mark - 2017
Dynamic factor models and external instrument identification are two recent advances in the empirical macroeconomic literature. This paper combines the two approaches in order to study the effects of monetary policy shocks. I use this novel framework to re-examine the effects found by Forni and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636064
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Divisia monetary aggregates for a heterogeneous euro area
Brill, Maximilian; Nautz, Dieter; Sieckmann, Lea - 2019 - This version: June 25, 2019
We introduce a Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area that accounts for the heterogeneity across member countries both, in terms of interest rates and the decomposition of monetary assets. In most of the euro area countries, the difference between the growth rates of the country-specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023395
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Banking market structure and macroeconomic stability : are low-income countries special?
Bremus, Franziska; Buch, Claudia M. - 2014
Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low … markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study the relevance of granular … effects: if the degree of market concentration in the banking sector is sufficiently high, idiosyncratic volatility at the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010471853
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Time-varying stock return correlation, news shocks, and business cycles
Metiu, Norbert; Prieto, Esteban - 2023 - November 25, 2022
The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014227600
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Harvests and business cycles in nineteenth-century America
Davis, Joseph H.; Hanes, Christopher L.; Rhode, Paul W. - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003804122
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How crashes develop : intradaily volatility and crash evolution
Bates, David S. - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451109
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Did output gap measurement improve over time?
Chiu, Adrian; Wieladek, Tomasz - 2012
We study whether the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap produced by the OECD has improved over time by examining a panel dataset on real-time output gap revisions for 15 countries from 1991 Q1 - 2005 Q4. We use a simple panel data regression and a state space model, with common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009559228
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Why do regional economies behave differently? : a modelling approach to analyse region-specific dynamics along the business cycle
Lasarte-López, Jesús Miguel; Carbonero-Ruz, Mariano; … - In: Applied economics letters 28 (2021) 16, pp. 1391-1399
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012609685