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German wages have not increased very rapidly in the last decade despite strong employment growth and a 5 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate. Our analysis shows that a large part of the decline in unemployment was structural. Micro-founded Phillips curves fit the German data rather...
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Trade liberalization leads to long-run gains, but it can also involve costly short-run macroeconomic adjustment. The paper explores the relative importance of these effects within a dynamic general equilibrium model that captures key elements of both international trade and macroeconomic models....
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This paper integrates a two-period overlapping generations model with a standard two-sector Hecksher-Ohlin trade model and analyzes the impact of uncertainty on domestic investment in the exportable and importable sectors, the political economy linkages between trade and financial...
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France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings … indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission …'s and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the …
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