Following a deep recession in 2020 and further contraction in 2021Q1, the euro area economy recovered rapidly in the second and third quarters thanks to high vaccination levels, increasing household and business adaptability to the virus, and continued forceful policy support. Looking ahead,...

This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy that reformulates what I take to be two important ideas from Keynes General Theory. The first is that there may be a continuum of steady state unemployment rates. The second is that beliefs select an equilibrium. I argue that search and matching...

This book examines the performance of the Brazilian economy since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/2008 with focus on both the productive and financial dimensions, along with distributional and social issues. The book will bring to light the causes of the fast recovery over 2009-2010 as well...

The paper discusses a model in which growth is a negative function of fiscal burden. Moreover, growth discontinuously switches from high to low as fiscal burden reaches a critical level. Growth collapse is associated with a Sudden Stop of capital inflows, real depreciation and a drop in output...

This paper demonstrates theoretically that a financial shock can have very persistent effects on international trade. Motivation is taken from the aftermath of the dramatic trade collapse in 2008-9, which despite a substantial recovery, has left a persistently slower growth rate in trade. We...

After contracting more than 5 percent in 2020, Kosovo's economy is projected to have recovered by 7.5 percent in 2021, thanks to mobility normalization, extraordinary diaspora inflows, and strengthened confidence. Improved vaccination rates supported these trends and mitigation and recovery...