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Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

Andersen, Torben G. - 2002

This paper provides a general framework for integration of high-frequency intraday data into the measurement forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting financial asset return volatilities, correlations, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458

Does Management Matter in Schools

Bloom, Nicholas - 2014

outcomes. The UK, Sweden, Canada and the US obtain the highest management scores closely followed by Germany, with a gap to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044342

Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration : Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange

Diebold, Francis X.; Hahn, Jinyong; Tay, Anthony S. - 2021

We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239958

Management Practices, Workforce Selection and Productivity

Bender, Stefan - 2016

and firm-level productivity in Germany. In our preferred TFP estimates only a small fraction of this correlation is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996465

Competition and Innovation : An Inverted U Relationship

Aghion, Philippe; Bloom, Nicholas; Griffith, Rachel; … - 2021

This paper investigates the relationship between product market competition (PMC) and innovation. A growth model is … reduce innovation incentives for laggards. There are four key predictions. First, the relationship between product market … competition (PMC) and innovation is an inverted U-shape. Second, the equilibrium degree of technological neck-and-neckness' among …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230578

Improving GDP Measurement : a Forecast Combination Perspective

Aruoba, S. Borağan - 2011

Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120293

Macroeconomic Adjustment and the History of Crises in Open Economies

Aizenman, Joshua - 2012

This paper investigates the impact of the history of crises on macroeconomic performance. We first study the impact of past banking crises on the probability of a future banking crisis. Applying data for 1980‐2010 for all countries for which the required information is available, controlling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098139

Saving and the Long Shadow of Macroeconomic Shocks

Aizenman, Joshua - 2013

The global crisis of 2008 raises many questions regarding the long‐term response to crises. We know that households that lost access to credit, for example, were forced to adjust and increase saving. But, will households keep on saving more than they would have done otherwise had the global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081508

Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness

Demirer, Mert - 2017

the world's top 150 banks, 2003-2014. We characterize static network connectedness using full-sample estimation and … dynamic network connectedness using rolling-window estimation. Statically, we find that global bank equity connectedness has a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963187

Covid-Induced Economic Uncertainty

Baker, Scott R. - 2020

Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators – stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837188