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This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the US economy has changed over time. To this end, we develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on a range of variables. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial … component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross …-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448758
We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, estimate it with several … findings, the estimates suggest that global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904508
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012204823
uncertainty is proxied by the (unobserved) volatility of the structural shocks, and a regime change occurs whenever credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472852
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013328240
by debt sustainability. Our results are based on a new empirical framework that allows the volatility of identified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009790714
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012204869
volatility and economic activity assuming that both variables are driven by the same set of unobserved common factors and that … these factors affect volatility and economic activity with a time lag of at least a quarter. Under these assumptions, the … paper analytically shows that volatility is forward looking and that the output equation of a typical VAR estimated in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286232