We qualify some of the traditionally accepted results on the predictive power of the term spread over output. We show that in the case of short-term spreads, the direction of the predictive power may be the opposite to that usually found in the empirical literature, which has mostly rested on...

This work examines the variation of the simple Moving Average (MA) trading rule performance as a function of the MA length in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) and Vienna Stock Exchange (VSE) using daily data from May 1993 to April 2005. Results show that changes of the...

The focus of this article is to examine the recent historical record of the US equity and government bond markets in an attempt to associate negative return correlations between the two series to identify flight-to-safety episodes. Using the Inclan-Tsiao algorithm to date changes in equity...

The 2007-2008 financial crisis has made it painfully obvious that markets may quickly turn illiquid. Moreover, recent experience has shown that distress and lack of active trading can jump 'around' between seemingly unconnected parts of the financial system contributing to transforming isolated...