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Continental Europe, implemented between 1936 and 1975. We assess the causal effect of education on the number of biological … children and the incidence of childlessness. We find surprising results for Continental Europe: the additional education …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010431274
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174841
This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 effective reproduction numbers and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013202378
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010415355
; VECM measurement errors ; Bayesian estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009295333
This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that have been influential in recent policy discussions. It notes potentially important features of the real- world environment that the standard models do not incorporate and discusses reasons why...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219345
characteristics, but with uncertain coefficients. Risk-neutral Bayesian investors impose shrinkage (ridge regression) or sparsity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156724
On the eve of its 60th anniversary, the gravity model of trade is a "celebrity", due to its intuitive appeal, solid theoretical foundations, and remarkable empirical success. Yet, many economists still view gravity simply as an intuitive but naive reduced-form estimating equation and apply it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818511
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641659
In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409368