We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) using data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data based identification approach of the structural...

Using second generation Panel Unit Root Tests (PURT), panel cointegration tests and panel Granger causality tests we find that although the financial crisis may have increased risk aversion for investors, it did not make disappearing speculative behaviours on structured credit markets. On the...

This article develops a method of nonlinear modelling for the dividends of the Group of seven (G7) indexes using threshold techniques: Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models (STAR). First, smoothness and nonlinearity are justified by the presence of heterogeneous expectations and companies of...

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these...