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The impact of news on higher moments
Jondeau, Eric (contributor); Rockinger, Michael (contributor) - 2006
In this paper, we extend the concept of News Impact Curve developed by Engle and Ng (1993) to the higher moments of the multivariate returns' distribution, thereby providing a tool to investigate the impact of shocks on the characteristics of the subsequent distribution. For this purpose, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003394353
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Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments : evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price
Huesler, Andreas D.; Sornette, Didier; Hommes, Cars H. - 2012
We analyze a controlled price formation experiment in the laboratory that shows evidence for bubbles. We calibrate two … models that demonstrate with high statistical significance that these laboratory bubbles have a tendency to grow faster than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009560804
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Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis
Leiss, Matthias; Nax, Heinrich H.; Sornette, Didier - 2014
We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010443041
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Can we use volatility to diagnose financial bubbles? : lessons from 40 historical bubbles
Sornette, Didier; Cauwels, Peter; Smilyanov, Georgi - 2017
We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible … volatility increase before a crash, but we do not see this as a consistent behavior. We examine forty well-known bubbles and … studied bubbles, the crash follows a period of lower volatility, reminiscent of the idiom of a “lull before the storm”. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011762277
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Time-varying risk premium in large cross-sectional equidity datasets
Gagliardini, Patrick; Ossola, Elisa; Scaillet, Olivier - 2011
We develop an econometric methodology to infer the path of risk premia from large unbalanced panel of individual stock returns. We estimate the time-varying risk premia implied by conditional linear asset pricing models where the conditioning includes instruments common to all assets and asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009313026
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Predicting BRICS stock returns using ARFIMA models
Aye, Goodness C.; Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; … - In: Applied financial economics 24 (2014) 16/18, pp. 1159-1166
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010418936
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Are REITs real estate? : evidence from international sector level data
Hoesli, Martin; Oikarinen, Elias - 2012
The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009558452
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Returns, volatility and the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017-18
Cross, Jamie; Hou, Chenghan; Trinh, Kelly - In: Economic modelling 104 (2021), pp. 1-17
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013164208
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Technical trading revisited : false discoveries, persistence tests, and transaction costs
Bajgrowicz, Pierre; Scaillet, Olivier - 2009 - This version: Sept. 2009
We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the DJIA index from 1897 to 2011, and use the False Discovery Rate as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it selects more outperforming rules which allows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003961414
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Predictability hidden by anomalous observations
Camponovo, Lorenzo; Scaillet, Olivier; Trojani, Fabio - 2013
Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721331