We qualify some of the traditionally accepted results on the predictive power of the term spread over output. We show that in the case of short-term spreads, the direction of the predictive power may be the opposite to that usually found in the empirical literature, which has mostly rested on...

Parallel to the economic growth and the increase of the living standards in the Eastern bloc the import requirements of its member countries are rising, too. For this reason all Western industrial nations make increasing efforts to establish themselves in these markets with good future prospects...