We qualify some of the traditionally accepted results on the predictive power of the term spread over output. We show that in the case of short-term spreads, the direction of the predictive power may be the opposite to that usually found in the empirical literature, which has mostly rested on...

Farming worldwide and national agricultural policies are in a profound crisis. Farmers everywhere are complaining about inadequate incomes. A large proportion of farms are threatened on both sides of the Atlantic, in the EC no less than in the USA. This situation has coincided with a period of...